Weekly E-mini S&P futures
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5110.25, down 322.50 on Friday and 512.75 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 17,539.00, down 1,136.50 on Friday and 1,918.00 on the week

Markets plunged on Friday, and there was hope over the weekend that the White House would either walk back the intensity of the surprise tariffs or find significant traction on deals being made. Neither occurred, and given the two-day rout to finish the week, panic and forced liquidation ran through markets on Sunday’s open. All things considered, last night’s open was bad, but certainly not a Black Monday type move. Cash VIX hit 60.13 overnight, and front-month VIX futures hit 40.20, which is higher than the August 37.10. Regardless, when coupled with the extreme fear running through markets, this is a level of volatility in which a bottoming process can typically begin. However, the outlier here is that this was man-made, a forced event, not a market dynamic, and will depend on rhetoric from President Trump, his team, and every country in the world, which are now his counterparties.

E-mini S&P futures traded down to 4832 on the open last nigh,t and this approaches a significant trend line from the Covid low (chart above). We are likely to see some selling through the opening bell and first hour, but as today unfolds, there must be some construction in order to build upon and at a minimum that would be trading and holding above our Pivot and point of balance at…

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