E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5440.75, up 49.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,934.75, up 127.25

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures traded higher to start the week, but with little enthusiasm given the messaging over the weekend. The White House issued a temporary tariff exemption for smartphones, laptops, and semiconductor equipment, but President Trump made it clear this would be short-lived. This morning, China halted Boeing deliveries as the trade war evolves.

Earnings season has started well with GS gaining 1.93% yesterday after a double beat. BAC and C have continued the trend ahead of the bell. NY Empire State Manufacturing was less worse than expected at -8.10 versus -12.80 while the Import and Export Price Index came in light m/m, at -0.1% versus +0.1%, and 0.0% versus +0.1%, respectively.

Notably, yesterday’s NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations were +3.6%, much more anchored than Friday’s Michigan survey.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures retreated from yesterday’s opening bell range and struggled in an attempt to retest this resistance later in the session. That said, yesterday was a constructive consolidation that saw price action respond to rare major four-star support at 5387-5391 in the E-mini S&P. We revised this to a three-star level after the first test, and the tape is under some pressure early this morning. A continued consolidation, with a back and fill is normal, but we must see a response from the bulls and not something that quickly deteriorates. If the range expands lower, a response to our next wave of support at….

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